April Fools? Did Trump Actually Signal an End to Middle East Aggression or Is This More 6D Chess? Stocks Embrace Peace, for Now

OK, it appears President Trump is ready to declare victory in a war that the U.S. actually lost, and not by a little, by a lot.

The somewhat cloudy objectives of the military assault on Iran - some of which were dreamt up after the bombs and missiles started flaying - were, in no particular rational order, regime change, destruction of Iran's navy and missile capabilities, assuring that Iran will never be able to produce a nuclear weapon, and to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

13 regional military bases, over $5 billion in anti-missile defense technology, two aircraft carriers, countless (because the War Department refuses to tell us) drones, jets, and casualties later, the United States and Israel have accomplished... wait for it...

Destruction of Iran's aging and mostly obsolete navy.

That's it.

If, by regime change, the U.S. intention was to replace the Ayatollah with a governent friendlier to U.S. interests: FAIL

Destroying Iran's missile capabilities: FAIL

Assuring that Iran will never be able to produce a nuclear weapon: FAIL

Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open: FAIL.

The U.S. killed off the only man keeping Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons capability. Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei had issued a fatwa outlawing Iran fro developing a nuclear weapon as far back as the 1990s. Killing him opened the door to more hard-line realists in the government. Iran's missile capabilities have been harmed, no doubt, though most estimates suggest they have been put back by maybe 25-35%. They are still firing off steady rounds of missiles and drones, while making more of them. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to all traffic except from nations the Iranians consider "friendly."

For all the posturing and posing and actual effort, President Trump can claim all the victories he likes, but the truth of the matter is that Iran kicked the ass of the United States and it's not yet done with doing the same to Israel. And, this was no ordinary ass-kicking. After just the first week, Iran had successfully backed the USS Abraham Lincoln out of theater. Whether it was hit by missiles or not isn't really worth arguing, though it probably was. The point is that Iran forced Trump's "armada" to move out of an area in which it could be operationally effective. Also in the first week, Iran neutralized much of the U.S. and Israel's defensive capabilities and badly damaged all the U.S. bases located in GCC nations, 13 of which the New York Times described as "uninhabitable."

Now, perhaps the statements made by Trump over the weekend and past few days might be a bluff. After all, thousands of U.S. troops and gear are steaming their way towards the Gulf, some having already arrived. People in the Pentagon are still considering a ground attack or taking of Kharg Island, a concept so irredeemably insane that it does not deserve mention. It would accomplish nothing.

Trump's best move with these new troops would be to turn them right around and send them back home or back to whatever outposts they were previously manning, because they're only going to end up as cannon fodder in the Middle East. Somebody, somewhere, caught the President's ear (or the ear of whoever is actually calling the shots) and told him of the ongoing catastrophe and the oncoming onslaught in the midterms if he doesn't change course, and soon.

In the coming days and weeks - and hopefully, not months - expect all manner of banter, back-and-forth posturing, negotiations (some fake, some real), messaging, tweeting, "truthing", finger-pointing, and exclamatory pronouncements from the White House, congress, various leaders of other nations, all part of the unscripted tragedy that has occurred and still remains. One major issue might concern the fate of Israel. If the U.S. departs from the region, as expected, they will likely continue to arm and fund the Israeli offensive, which would be a shame since Iran would then concentrate most of its military might against it, and, just as likely, obliterate it, with ample support of its proxies in the region: Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, militants in Syria and Iraq.

In the end, the most desirable outcome might be a de-militarized Israel with the U.S. gone from the region and unwilling to support Zionist objectives. There is not likely to be a permanent peace in the region, but, at least the levels of atrocious militancy will be abated for some time. The only entity seriously seeking military dominance is Israel, and Iran, should the U.S. diminish its support, will largely complete the job.

As far as stocks and economics are concerned, as witnessed on Tuesday, U.S. equites will go more or less straight up as long as the Trump administration appears to be acting in a more rational manner. Since that is a questionable posture, there are likely to be quite a few gains and losses in huge moves either way. Despite the outsized gains from Tuesday, the major indices are still down sharply from all-time highs and even month-ago levels. Insiders are surely making bank on every move, but the VIX is still elevated, hovering around 25 after a 20% drop Tuesday, assuring further volatility. Generally speaking, a brief peace dividend is not going to eviscerate the multitude of issues facing Western economies.

On the home front in the U.S., ADP reported private sector job growth of 62,000 in the company's March Employment Report. In a somewhat starting reversal of recent trends, small companies (fewer than 20 employees) made the most gains (+112,000). Companies with between 20 and 250 employees shed a combined 53,000 jobs. Companies with 250-499 employees gained 6,000. The largest companies (500+) lost 6,000 jobs.

The off take from those figures suggests that smaller, specialized, "mom and pop" type businesses that were ravaged during the COVID escapade might be staging a comeback at the expense of larger, entrenched firms. That may not be such a good thing for the Apples, Googles, and Amazons of the world, though it might be welcome to the general public. Innovation and specialization skills may take the place of the 9 to 5 grinders. Technology - especially AI - might spur some badly needed entrepreneurship at the local and regional levels. While the old school economy may find itself in a bit of a rut and in need of structural changes, bottom-up start-ups might emerge as winners over coming months and years. Not everybody needs to be connected to mega-cap corporations.

As stocks made major moves upward, oil prices didn't react as favorably as expected. From a high of $106 Monday to a low just below $97, WTI crude oil futures are still trading around $100. Stock futures are expectedly higher, with Dow futures up 203 points, NASDAQ gaining 158, and S&P futures up 30 points.

So far this morning, Trump hasn't tweeted anything significant though there's little doubt about his ability to open mouth and insert foot. Recently, he touted Trump accounts being taken up by four million investors as a positive. These are accounts that are seeded with $1000 of government money, available to - ostensibly, the parents of - children aged 0-18 years of age. Four million takers out of an estimated pool of 72 million (roughly 4 million births each year since 2008, 18 years) is an uptake rate of about 5-6%. Not bad, but hardly something to crow about.

Well, OK, Donnie snuck one in just before Money Daily was about to post:

Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJT

Then there's this: U.S. Senators Unveil ‘Mined in America Act’ to Reshore BTC Mining, Codify Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) introduced the “Mined in America Act” to reshore U.S. bitcoin mining, reduce reliance on Chinese hardware, and codify a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law, reminding Americans once again that it's still a clown show in Washington, D.C. and a rigged casino on Wall Street.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 31, 2026:
Dow: 46,341.51, +1,125.37 (+2.49%)
NASDAQ: 21,590.63, +795.99 (+3.83%)
S&P 500: 6,528.52, +184.80 (+2.91%)
NYSE Composite: 22,089.43, +507.78 (+2.35%)

TACO TUESDAY Trump Shamelessly Plays Politics with War, People's Lives, Suggesting Middle East 'Off-Ramp' for United States

Tuesday morning, President Trump posted a couple of videos of massive explosions (supposedly in Iran) and a couple of texts on TruthSocial.

All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT

Big day in Iran. Many long sought after targets have been taken out and destroyed by our GREAT MILITARY, the finest and most lethal in the World. God bless you all! President DJT

Wall Street is seemingly interpreting Trump's posts as an indication that the president is not completely insane, and that he sees the need to exit the fight against Iran as essential to his political future. One specific passage - "the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore" - tells the whole story. President TACO is backing away from the conflict, touting some mythical negotiations that are largely taking place only in the president's mind.

Centcom got on board with a press conference by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Centcom Commander Brad Cooper, the tone of which was dramatically less belligerent and chest-thumping than previous announcements and public disclosures. As usual, the military was long on rhetoric and short on details, claiming that "most" of their objectives have been achieved and that it was time for the countries that actually depend on oil and natural gas flowing through the Strait of Hormuz to step up and get it re-opened.

All of this happened after Iran struck a fully-loaded Kuwaiti oil tanker in a Dubai port after the U.S. hit the Iranian city of Isfahan, one of the supposed sites holding Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. The fog of war everyday getting foggier, there's a good chance the U.S. has no idea where Iran's enriched uranium is located, as well as the strike on the fully-loaded tanker being a poorly-conceived false flag carried out by the U.S. or Israel, blaming "the vile, blood-thirsty goat herders" in Iran.

It wouldn't make sense for Iran to strike a tanker far removed from the exit at the Strait while at the same time allowing 20 similarly fully loaded Pakistani tankers free passage. Trump announced the move only yesterday, taking credit for the event by suggesting that the partial opening of the strait was somehow a tribute to the United States and a show of respect by Iran.

Thus, today's strategy of withdrawal has markets keyed up for a big show of positivity. The Trump family, Howard Lutnick and his pals and other insiders are certain to profit from the latest episode of "play the market." The only good that may come of this is that the U.S. may be reconsidering any kind of land invasion, after seeing two of its aircraft carriers - the USS Lincoln and Ford - struck by Iranian missiles, 13 military bases destroyed, the U.S. and other large equity markets buckling, treasury yields spiking along with the price of oil and gas, and Trump's popularity plunging.

It's all politically motivated and the trend for tRepublicans in power is moving in the wrong direction. Pretty ridiculous, having achieved nothing other than making Iran hate the U.S. even more and half of Israel blown to smithereens.

With U.S. markets doe to open within minutes, Dow futures are up 515 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 265, and S&P futures are sporting a gain of 75 points.

Happy days? Well, at least a happy morning. After all, it is the last day of the Month and the 1st quarter, markets ripe for some positive window dressing on TACO TUESDAY.

At the Close, Monday, March 30, 2026:
Dow: 45,216.14, +49.50 (+0.11%)
NASDAQ: 20,794.64, -153.72 (-0.73%)
S&P 500: 6,343.72, -25.13 (-0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 21,581.65, -50.84 (-0.24%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Keeping Score in Middle East; Preparing for a Greater Depression? Oil Spikes, Stocks Slump; Gold Silver May Have Found Bottoms

With U.S. media on a virtual lockdown over reporting from the Middle East, more reliable information comes from social media accounts on X.com and youtube channels.

Here are a few of the youtbue channels reporting unbiased, uncensored truths about the war against Iran:

• Daniel Davis Deep Dive
• The Duran
• Dialogue Works
• Danny Haiphong
• Glenn Diesen
• Mario Nawfal

The number of X.com accounts covering the conflict are numerous and growing.

What the U.S., Israel, and Iran have accomplished thus far is best discovered by looking at conditions prior to the initation of war b Israel and the U.S. on February 28.

As of February 27, negotiations between the U.S. and Iran had reached a point at which Iran was willing to agree to not enrich uranium, among other concessions. At that point, the Strait of Hormuz was open to regular shipping, with hundreds of oil and natural gas haulers safely transversing the Persian Gulf and the Strait. Military activity was building up, however, in all of the countries involved, including the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln and escort ships, and U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford headed for the region.

The U.S. had roughly 21 military bases in the region. Israel and Iran had not been attacked since the 12-day war in June, 2025.

In the now 4+ weeks that have followed, Iran has been relentlessly struck by missile and bombs from the U.S. and Israel, killing at least 4,000 citizens, over 100 political and military leaders, 600 schools and more than 60 hospitals. Much of Israel, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem have suffered serious damage and casualties from continued missile and drone attacks from Iran. Attacks from all sides continue.

13 U.S. military bases in the region - in Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and UAE have been rendered "uninhabitable" according to the New York Times.

Most Patriot and THAAD early warning systems have been destroyed.

The U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln departed from theater in the first week, along with its escort ships.

U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford entered the Mediterranean in the second week, anchored near Israel, suffered a severe fire that took 30 hours to contain and has departed from the region. U.S. accounts attest that the fire was caused by lint and debris buildup in the laundry facilities. Other voices claim that it and the Lincoln were both hit by missiles and/or drones.

Oil facilities on all three sides have been targeted and attacked with losses in the millions, if not billions of dollars.

Much more, including attacks on industrial sites, U.S. embassies in the region, the near-total destruction of Iran's navy, though many of Iran's speedboats and anti-ship missile and drone capabilities remain largely intact. Conflicts have spread to Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, mostly of Israel's doing.

The U.S. has begun building up ground forces in the area. As many as 7,500 new troops are transiting to the area, joining 40,000 already stationed in the region.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed the first week of the conflict and has remained closed.

Mission accomplished?

The U.S. claims its mission was regime change, destroying Iran's missile and drone capabilities, destroying Iran's navy, making sure Iran could never produce a nuclear weapon, and, later, keeping the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic.

Actually, doesn't look too good for either side, but, considering the goals of the U.S. and conditions prior to the war, the U.S. has suffered greatly due to intelligence and planning failures. If the U.S. and Israel had not started the war, the U.S. would still have 21 functioning bases, not eight, as exists today. The Strait of Hormuz would have remained open, Israel would not be bombed relentlessly for a month, with more to come.

Now, with the U.S. planning some kind of ground assault, Houthi militants have announced their entry into the conflict and sent missiles at Israel on Saturday. Yemen’s Houthi rebels may threaten to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, potentially disrupting roughly 12% of global trade and oil shipments.

Hezbollah and Hamas continue to attack the forces of the IDF.

The Trump administration initially had no timeline, though they suggested at first that the whole shebang would be wrapped up over the weekend of February 28 - March 1. Then, having failed that, the timeline moved to "a couple of weeks", the four to six weeks. The conflict is now in its fifth week and there's serious doubt that it will be anywhere near resolution in two more weeks.

President Trump was supposed to have visited China in early April, but rescheduled the trip for May 14-15, signaling that the conflict will have been resolved by then. Good luck with that.

A Fox News poll taken just days ago finds that 42% of Americans approve of the military action against Iran, but 58% are opposed.

The reality of the situation is stark. No side can claim victory, as the U.S. has done repeatedly. This has become a full-scale regional war with Iran's military capabilities marginally degraded, Israel suffering heavy losses, and U.S. capabilities serious degraded. The U.S. had requested assistance from NATO nations and others. None agreed to help. The U.S. has also falsely claimed that Iran has been seeking negotiations to end the conflict when, in fact, the U.S. is seeking a diplomatic solution. Most, if not all of the time, the "winning" side doesn't seek help from allies nor negotiations for a ceasefire or diplomatic solution.

The U.S. may have committed one of the most egregious military blunders of all time by joining Israel in its bloodlust against Iran.

The results thus far have been downplayed by the media, but rising oil and gas prices and slumping stock markets in the U.S. and Europe are beginning to tell the real story.

Stocks

Another nasty week for stocks:

For the Week:
Dow: -410.83 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ: -699.25 (-3.23%)
S&P 500: -137.63 (-2.12%)
NYSE Composite: +15.77 (+0.07%)
Dow Transports: +365.68 (+1.82)

On a weekly basis, five straight losers for the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ has been in the red five straight weeks and nine of the last 10. There's no realistic rationale for the Dow Transports other than a reaction rally early in the week. Thursday and Friday, the index of 20 stocks finished in the red. It's still down nearly 10% from its mid-February high.

All of the indices ended the week trading below their 50-and-200-day moving averages. This is already a correction on those terms, though the usual punditry at CNBC, Fox, and Bloomberg will continue to tout the 10% decline as the "real" sign of a correction. In practical terms, anything between five and 15% down is a correction. Dropping 15% or more is a bear market in most cases, depending on the technical set-up. The financial media will describe a bear market as a 20% drop, regardless of technicals.

Actually, there are no set rules or percentages for corrections or bear markets. Those conditions, along with bull markets, which dominate, need technical support often lacking from the TV talking heads or even "trusted" sources like the Wall Street Journal. Wall Street is set up to sell stocks and other forms of securities, not to report actualities of the various markets, making the financial press heavily biased toward the bullish case.

Here are how the major averages have fared from recent all-time highs (ATH) and year-to-date.

Index	% from ATH	YTD
Dow:	-10.01%	-6.03%
NASDAQ:	-12.56%	-9.87%
S&P 500:	-8.74%	-6.96%
NYSE Comp:	-8.28%	-1.69%

According to daily closing prices, the Dow and NASDAQ are already in Bloomberg-approved corrections. The S&P and NYSE Composite are within reasonably-assumed ranges. The relevant questions are how much further stocks can decline, how much longer the war effort will last and how high inflation is going to reach. If stocks don't even move for another year, inflation alone will account for a 4-6% loss.

Markets are closed on Friday for the Christian observance of Good Friday. Prior to that, economic data includes:

Tuesday: Consumer confidence (March); S&P Case-Shiller price index (January) Wednesday (April Fool's Day): U.S. retail sales (February); ADP employment report (March), Business inventories (January), ISM manufacturing PMI (March), S&P manufacturing PMI (March) Thursday: U.S. trade deficit (February); Initial jobless claims Friday: BLS Non-farm Payroll report (March); Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M02 Results; ISM services PMI (March), S&P services PMI (March)

Editor's Note: Release dates for Friday, April 3 are valid for all cited above, including the BLS, Non-farm Payrolls for March. With markets closed, there could be a Monday shock on April 6, incidentally the deadline date that President Trump promised (and broke) that Iran infrastructure would not be targeted unless a ceasefire or "deal" had been made.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/20/2026	3.72	3.73	3.74	3.69	3.71	3.61	3.51
02/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.73	3.67	3.67	3.60	3.48
03/06/2026	3.75	3.74	3.72	3.69	3.67	3.66	3.55
03/13/2026	3.75	3.74	3.71	3.72	3.69	3.70	3.66
03/20/2026	3.73	3.71	3.72	3.74	3.73	3.79	3.80
03/27/2026	3.74	3.73	3.72	3.73	3.72	3.75	3.77

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/20/2026	3.48	3.50	3.65	3.85	4.08	4.66	4.72
02/27/2026	3.38	3.39	3.51	3.72	3.97	4.57	4.64
03/06/2026	3.56	3.59	3.72	3.93	4.15	4.74	4.77
03/13/2026	3.73	3.74	3.87	4.07	4.28	4.89	4.90
03/20/2026	3.88	3.90	4.01	4.20	4.39	4.97	4.96
03/27/2026	3.88	3.94	4.06	4.25	4.44	4.99	4.98

Treasuries have crossed the financial Rubicon as 10-year notes yielded above 4.40% and the 30-year bond yield approaches 5.00%. The Fed's ability to tamp rates down amidst a military excursion into madness and continuing de-dollarization pressures is being severely tested even as Chairman Jerome Powell (known on the street as J-Pow) approaches to the end of his term on May 31.

It gets a little deeper. Powell stated less than two weeks ago that he was prepared to stay on as Fed Chairman until the U.S. Senate approves Trump's replacement, Kevin Warsh. He also stated that he will continue to serve on the Fed's Board of Governors until his legal case is settled. Powell's term as a governor extending into early 2028.

So, in addition to the countless bumbles, fumbles, and foibles of the Trump administration, with assistance from the usually-inefficient Senate, they can't even appoint a Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Chaos is assured.

Speads remained high, with 2s-10s at +56 basis points and full spectrum ratcheting higher to +124.

At this juncture, agreeing to loan the U.S. government any amount of money for longer than six months would warrant a return of substantially more than four percent and even more for longer-dated maturities. Something along the lines of six to eight percent might be appropriate for a 30-year bond. Alternatively, should the world cycle down into a Greater Depression or something along the lines of severe stagflation, interest rates might actually need to be reversed in order to spur economic activity. The world is teetering on a razor's edge.

Spreads:

2s-10s
2026
1/2: +72
1/9: +64
1/16: +65
1/23: +64
1/30: +74
2/6: +72
2/13: +64
2/20: +60
2/27: +59
3/6: +59
3/13: +55
3/20: +51
3/27: +56

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
2026
1/2: +114
1/9: +112
1/16: +108
1/23: +104
1/30: +115
2/6: +113
2/13: +97
2/20: +100
2/27: +90
3/6: +102
3/13: +115
3/20: +123
3/27: +124

Oil/Gas

WTI Crude Oil finished the week at $101.18, slicing right through the dreaded $100 mark on Friday, when the future price zoomed more than seven percent. Though only slightly higher than last Friday's close at $98.09, the new paradigm now constructs above $100. The longer the strait of Hormuz remains closed (a very distinct possibility), the higher the price of oil will go. There is no trickery to this obvious calculation and very little President Trump can do to avoid spiraling oil and gas prices.

Average price for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline in the U.S. was $3.94 last Sunday and $3.96 this week. It's likely that this will be the last time the average price will be below $4.00 for some time, possibly many months.

Prices in key states:

California (leader): $5.86
Washington: $5.31
Oklahoma (lowest): $3.21
Florida: $3.94
Illinois: $4.20
Pennsylvania: $3.93
New York: $3.90
Maryland: $3.99
Texas: $3.56
Georgia: $3.55

There are nine states above $4.00, including Idaho, Indiana, Illinois, and Utah. All 41 states east of Idaho, Utah and Arizona are below $4.00 except for Illinois and Indiana ($4.01). The Midwest has supplanted the Southeast as the lowest region, with prices averaging 20-25 cents lower in states like South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas than Tennessee, Georgia and Mississippi.

Bitcoin

This week: $66,408.86
Last week: $68,913.54
2 weeks ago: $71,582.53
6 months ago: $114,430.10
One year ago: $82,963.95
Five years ago: $57,072.53

Bitcoin has been essentially cut in half from its peak in October, 2025 ($124,310.60). "Hodlers" can take comfort in the fact that other crypto "shitcoins" have preformed similarly.

Anybody who bought bitcoin from November 2024 into early February 2026, a period of 15 months, has lost money and lost even more to inflation.

Absolute grifters like Michael Saylor, President Trump and his three sons (cue music from 60s classic TV, "My Three Sons" starring Fred MacMurray: 1908-1991). Unlike their contemporary counterparts, the TV kids were pretty much regulars, only engaging in goofy teenage schemes and practical jokes. The Trump sons play for money, counterfeit, and power, and are actually quite deceitful. Michael Saylor's reputation goes without saying. He has been charged with securities and tax fraud in 2000 and 2022, settling with the SEC and US Justice Department, paying substantial fines in both instances.

He is not "Bitcoin Jesus" by any stretch of the imagination.

Crypto is fraud atop counterfeit, or as Steve Carrell as Mark Baum stated, describing CDOs, in the film, "The Big Short", "dog shit wrapped in cat shit." SSDD.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 64.42; last week: 66.29

Futures, per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/27: $5,296.40
Gold price 3/6: $5,181.30
Gold price 3/13: $5,023.10
Gold price 3/20: $4,492.00
Gold price 3/27: $4,521.30

Silver price 2/27: $94.39
Silver price 3/6: $84.69
Silver price 3/13: $80.64
Silver price 3/20: $67.81
Silver price 3/27: $69.77

SPOT:
(stockcharts.com)
Gold 2/27: $5,278.05
Gold 3/6: $5,144.28
Gold 3/13: $5,022.11
Gold 3/20: $4,494.00
Gold 3/27: $4,495.05

Silver 2/27: $93.82
Silver 3/6: $84.33
Silver: 3/13: $80.60
Silver 3/20: $67.79
Silver 3/27: $69.77

Gold finished the week up a dollar from the week prior, while silver ended higher by nearly two dollars. This may indicate a short-term bottom in both precious metals, though there is not going to be certainty on anything technical during the fog of war and continued suppression tactics, for which the war is providing good cover. Both metals on physical markets are meeting significant premia, reflected by the weekly eBay surveys below.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (free shipping included, numismatics excluded):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	78.22	95.00	84.67	83.94
1 oz silver bar:	77.00	99.50	85.87	84.97
1 oz gold coin:	4,561.04	4,893.97	4,745.21	4,744.40
1 oz gold bar:	4,509.00	4,784.90	4,700.13	4,713.00

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose slightly through Sunday, March 29, to $84.86, a gain of 75 cents from the March 22 price of $84.11 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Economic realities take time to develop, but the current condition of the United States - and, by proxy, most Western economies - suggests nothing short of severe consequences due overwhelmingly to the unprovoked war being waged against Iran by the United States and the out of control nation of Israel. By any measure, economic conditions for the average and lower classes in America have been declining for a considerable length of time, roughly beginning with the removal of the gold standard by President Nixon in August 1971.

Since then, America has gone from a creditor to debtor nation, standards of living have generally remained fluid thanks to technology, but those benefitting the most has declined to include roughly the top 10% of the population since 2001. The once-thriving middle class has been reduced to rubble, with most earners near the median currently struggling to afford everyday expenses.

The Middle East predicament is neither to be easily nor readily resolved and people in any nation that depends on outside supply of energy and food will be under serious pressure to maintain even a subsistence level. Poorer nations will be harder hit, but the capital destruction in America and Europe will be hard to ignore.

Absolute tyrannical leadership in the U.S. and many European nations have fomented a period of wealth destruction that is likely to continue for years. Destroyed oil production and refinery facilities will take years to rebuild, affecting the cost of energy and food the worst. Americans and Europeans should brace for shortages amid an inflationary environment, possibly unlike the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Historians may someday call this - entirely preventable - period the Greater Depression.

At the Close, Friday, March 27, 2026:
Dow: 45,166.64, -793.47 (-1.73%)
NASDAQ: 20,948.36, -459.72 (-2.15%)
S&P 500: 6,368.85, -108.31 (-1.67%)
NYSE Composite: 21,632.50, -211.48 (-0.97%
)

For the Week:
Dow: -410.83 (-0.90%)
NASDAQ: -699.25 (-3.23%)
S&P 500: -137.63 (-2.12%)
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War Narrative May Be Wearing Thin on Wall Street; S&P Looking at 5th Straight Weekly Loss as Trump Extends Yet Another Iran Deadline

With the war in Iran still raging, modern investors have added another tool to their arsenal of market prediction devices: checking TruthSocial for Trump posts before, during, and after market hours.

This has become essential for anybody moving money in markets. Since the onset of the war, Trump's posts, tweets, or truths have become almost akin to an Orwellian Ministry of Truth, dictating the movement of the herd, hoard, boards, bean-counters, Beanie-Babies, baby daddies, ditch diggers, oil riggers, stone cutters and even some stoned corn cobblers.

It's the new AI, "Almost Insightful."

Actually, Trump's random scribblings aren't all that important for anybody with an IQ above room temperature or an investment horizon longer than 30 minutes. Most normal people (normal being a moving object these days) aren't glued to their Bloomberg or Interactive Broker monitors. The abnormal primates that inhabit lower Manhattan and otherwise undesirable portions of New Jersey are far from normal and far removed from exceptional status. They're where they are in order to do one thing: grift from the public. They exist as modern day anti-Robin Hoods, taking from anybody to give to themselves. Other than lining their pockets with OPM (other peoples money), they serve no useful purpose. They can't fix a leaky faucet, nor can they hammer a nail. Nobody in their right mind would hire them to babysit their kids.

If you are one of them, this message is for you: GFY. The world is moving past the era of financialization of everything. All due apologies to Gordon Gecko, greed is decidedly NOT good and measuring the value of people by their net worth or stock portfolio is avaricious, shameful, and churlish.

Modern people have grown tired of an existence based upon how much money they'll need to retire from a slavish employment. Under the current rubric of self-worth equating to a bank account balance, hearts and minds yearn for actual meaning, purpose, or relief from a world ruled by billionaire oligarchs seeking to identify, track, and judge every human action. "Freedom", as defined in the ballad, "Me and Bobby McGee" as just another word for nothing left to lose has once again spun up to the present as prescient. There's got to be a better way and people are increasingly seeking one.

Trump's tweets and truths become simply the overt manifestation of the politics of financial inertia, where everything and anything is defined by dollar signs of a currency rapidly losing value. A dime doesn't buy a cup of coffee and a million has become passé. High-echelon grifting has gone mainstream, leaving the huddled masses to fend for themselves in a quagmire or lies, half-truths and unabashed propaganda. There's an end to it, somewhere, and though it hasn't yet appeared, the end does seem to be closing fast.

Trump's latest missive concerning yet another ultimatum and timeline, hasn't gone over very well on Wall Street.

As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time. Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

3/26/26 4:11 pm

Stock futures are lower heading into Friday's session. With less than a half hour before the bell, Dw futures are down 217 points; NASDAQ futures are off 190, and S&P futures are lower by 36 points. This comes following a bloody session Thursday amid a disappointing week.

Through Thursday's close, the Dow still holds gains from earlier, up 382 points. The NASDAQ has done less well, down 239, and the S&P is down 29 points. Friday's trade looks vulnerable. A negative close would mark the seventh down week for the S&P in the last eight and its fifth straight week n the red.

After a while, one has to question Trump's decision-making ability and the rationale for entering into a military conflict with a nation that can actually put up a fight. A couple of weeks of negative returns might be passed off as just the usual ups and downs of the market, but five straight begins to look like a trend, a pattern. It's becoming obvious that not everybody is a drone or a garden gnome, following wistfully along the road to perdition.

At the Close, Thursday, March 26, 2026:
Dow: 45,960.11, -469.38 (-1.01%)
NASDAQ: 21,408.08, -521.75 (-2.38%)
S&P 500: 6,477.16, -114.74 (-1.74%)
NYSE Composite: 21,843.97, -283.65 (-1.28%)

Trump's 'tweets' and 'truths' Make Trading Risky; Overall, Stocks are Lower Since End of January; Gold, Silver on Sale in Weird Twist

Up one day, down another.

These are exceptionally difficult markets to trade, being that entire indices can turn on a dime whenever President Trump makes a statement on truthsocial.com, his very own bully pulpit platform. Whether the statement has any veracity at all matters not, only the message sent to markets concerning the war effort in the Middle East is tradable, the algorithms picking up on the tone and substance of whatever the Tweeter-in-Chief posts.

Taking market manipulation to an entirely new level, all but a few insiders - who are profiting handsomely - have advance information on which way Trump intends to send markets on any particular day. Trying to guess or ascertain in which direction stocks or the price of crude oil or natural gas on any day at any time is an extremely risky endeavor.

One thing that has become clear from all the lifting and dumping of stocks and commodity futures is that the direction for stocks has been decidedly down since the end of January, and has only accelerated since the onset of hostilities on February 28. The opposite is true for oil, as WTI crude oil had remained below $70/barrel until Friday, February 27, shooting up to above $90 by the end of the first week of the war. Since then, it's been up and down, bounced by presidential musings, half truths, and whole lies, but it appears the market has figured out the game. Thursday morning sees WTI crude priced above $94, with stock futures tumbling.

Trump posted early this morning (6:39 am ET) on Truth Social:

The Iranian negotiators are very different and “strange.” They are “begging” us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that they are only “looking at our proposal.” WRONG!!! They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty! President DJT

This whole charade is getting a bit tiring, to say the least, but naked emperor seems to be in a sour mood this morning, demanding Iran surrender for the umpteenth time.

However, as of this writing, at 8:30-9:00 am ET, the president still has an hour to make a market-moving pronouncement before the opening bell, and there's no guarantee that he won't mouth off a few times during the day. In fact, odds are good that he'll "tweet", "truth", or comment live to the press at some point. He simply can't help himself and there's still plenty of easy grifting available.

So, unless you have nerves of steel and money with which to play, day-trading with the heavy hitters and insiders might not be the optimal trading strategy at this juncture. A few ways to play the current malaise might be to go long defense stocks, energy, and financials. There's little doubt that more and more money is headed toward the likes of Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD) or Northrop Grumman (NOC), or that ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) won't be making windfall profits for a few quarters. And it's almost a certainty that the trading houses of JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) will have been privy to at least some of the best insider trades.

Profits on these stocks may take a while to show up, but, if one has a six month or longer horizon, they may turn out to be mice catches. This is not financial advice, only opinion. Money Daily has no positions in any of these securities.

One of the oddities of the current global market is how precious metals have traded in tight correlation to stocks. For instance, stock futures are lower this morning, so gold and silver have traded off as well. This is far from normal. Usually, in times of stress, investors flee to gold and silver. This time, one supposes, is different. Markets are under control of a vast, deceitful cabal of internationalists whose goal seems to be the upheaval of everything in the political, social, military, and financial spheres. From the looks of it, they're doing a swell job, so far.

Gold and silver are on sale, so stocking up a little right now might not be a bad idea, unless you've got storage facilities for a couple thousand barrels of oil. Otherwise, canned goods and survival rations? Maybe.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 25, 2026:
Dow: 46,429.49, +305.43 (+0.66%)
NASDAQ: 21,929.83, +167.93 (+0.77%)
S&P 500: 6,591.90, +35.53 (+0.54%)
NYSE Composite: 22,127.62, +156.32 (+0.71%)